In recent years, China's textile industry has made rapid progress, and has become a major textile country in the world. With low cost, it has been sweeping the world market, forcing many countries to set restrictions one after another. The rapid rise of China's textile industry has brought an unexpected problem: there is a huge gap in cotton textile raw materials, and the security situation of cotton is grim.

Experts pointed out that for the powerful textile industry, China's cotton resources have entered a strategic shortage period, with a gap of 2 million tons, one third of China's demand will depend on the international market. Once international speculators control the market, the cotton textile industry will face great risks. The gap is huge and depends heavily on the international market.

Ma Dongxiang, vice president of China Cotton Circulation Economic Research Association, recently predicted that the national cotton shortage will reach 3.2 million tons this year, while the total cotton production in China this year is only 5.7 million tons, with the shortage accounting for more than half of the output. Although China's export of cotton textiles has been affected by European and American restrictions this year, the cotton consumption of China's cotton textile enterprises has maintained a high growth rate. Mao Shuchun, an expert at the Cotton Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, pointed out that in the first half of this year, the spinning volume of China's textile enterprises increased by 23% year on year, which exceeded the expectations of the industry. Zhang Shiping, chairman of Shandong Weiqiao Textile Group Co., Ltd., the largest cotton textile enterprise in China, introduced that in 2004 Weiqiao had used 800,000 tons of cotton. In 2005, cotton use is expected to increase by 25% to 1 million tons. Guo Mingquan, manager of Shandong Cotton and Hemp Company, believes that in the next three to five years or even ten years, China's cotton supply will be in short supply for a long time, with an annual gap of at least 1.5 million tons to 2 million tons. At present, cotton has become the third largest imported agricultural product in China after soybean and edible oil.

Baihe

Experts predict that by 2010, China's spinning volume will reach 15 million tons, accounting for half of the world's total. For the powerful textile industry, cotton resources have entered a period of strategic shortage. According to the gap of 2 million tons, one third of China's demand will depend on the international market. Once the international speculators control the market, the cotton textile industry will face great risks. On September 1, 1999, China's cotton production and price "double fluctuation" ended its long-term planning control, the market was liberalized, the purchase price and sale price of cotton were mainly formed by the market, and the state no longer made uniform provisions. In the year when the market was opened, cotton production, which had been maintained by administrative decrees, declined rapidly. In 1999, the cotton planting area in China dropped sharply to its lowest level in history. At the same time, China's cotton production has also fallen into a "strange circle" of violent fluctuations, which has not yet come out.

In terms of cotton prices, it is highlighted by the sharp rise and fall. In 2003, domestic cotton prices rose by more than 100%. In 2004, the price of cotton fell sharply again, and the difference of China's cotton price index was 35.9%. The sharp rise and fall of cotton prices make cotton spinning enterprises, cotton processing and circulation enterprises and cotton farmers bear tremendous risks and pressures. Zhao Fahong, director of Shandong Cotton Production Office, said that when cotton prices fell sharply, cotton farmers were hit and the cotton spinning enterprises were short of raw materials; when cotton prices rose sharply, cotton farmers could sell more money and should benefit. But often the year of high price is the year of low cotton area and yield, farmers can not get much benefit. The high cotton price increases the cost of textile enterprises, and cotton textile enterprises complain endlessly.

With the rise and fall of prices, fluctuations in cotton production intensified. Li Fuguang, deputy director of the Cotton Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, introduced that the cotton planting area in 2002 was 62 million mu, 10 million mu less than the previous year. Based on the 22% increase in cotton planting area in 2003 compared with 2002, the total yield of cotton decreased by 1% due to disasters. Driven by high prices, cotton planting area expanded by 11.4% last year, with total output reaching 6.32 million tons, an increase of 30%, a record high. This year, because the price of seed cotton fell to 4 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of the year, which dampened the enthusiasm of cotton farmers to grow cotton, the area of cotton planting in the whole country dropped by 20%. The drastic fluctuation of cotton market price and production fluctuation overlap each other, further amplifying its instability.

By self-sufficiency or by import?

Experts pointed out that facing the huge gap of cotton production and demand in China, relying solely on the international market carries great risks. We must base ourselves on the domestic market, increase cotton production and expand supply. Li Fuguang, deputy director of China Cotton Research Institute, said that at present, China's cotton production capacity is still quite fragile, especially the ability to resist disasters is poor. Climate anomalies often cause significant losses in cotton production. Therefore, from another point of view, improving disaster resistance can reduce losses and increase production.

Experts appealed that, in view of China's cotton security considerations, after the successful implementation of the food support policy, increase support for cotton. Li Fuguang said that the reason why cotton production in the United States has remained stable for a long time is that the U.S. government has invested a huge subsidy. According to USDA data, between August 1999 and July 2003, the United States provided about $12.47 billion in subsidies to cotton farmers, compared with $13.94 billion in cotton output and 89.5% in subsidies over the same period. Although it is impossible for China to achieve such a high subsidy rate, the appropriate subsidy should be.

In recent years, in order to make up for the shortage of cotton, China has imported a large number of cotton in the form of quota, but due to the lack of predictability of quota issuance, improper timing and quantity control, the domestic cotton market shocks have been aggravated. Guo Mingquan, manager of Shandong Cotton and Hemp Company, believes that the issue of import quotas for cotton should be combined with the national reserve. In this way, not only can international resources be obtained at a low cost, but also reserves can be increased and sold when domestic cotton prices are too high.